March 27, 2020
Above seasonal warm temperatures have been forecasted for the next 10 days, with a storm system
delivering 25-35 mm of rain expected to start Saturday and continue through to Monday. It is predicted
that higher temperatures and rain will contribute to the total melt out of the remaining snow pack in the
northern regions of the Moira watershed (north of HWY 7) within this timeframe. Although almost all
snow and ice have already melted south of HWY 7, the area of the upper Moira watershed still contains a
significant snowpack. This will result in a rapid rise in the Black, Skootamatta, and the Moira River
upstream of Stoco Lake. Small creeks and low lying areas may experience high water levels as well.
The watershed’s upper lakes and tributaries may experience localized flooding.
The area around Moira River at Actinolite may possibly be at risk for minor flooding mid next week.
Residents and property owners that annually experience localized flooding should prepare now.
Water Resources Technician Dave Eastcott says, “Rivers will respond quickly and waterfront property
owners on the Moira, Salmon, Black, and Skootamatta Rivers who experience annual periodic flooding
should closely monitor the conditions in order to protect their property.”
The flood risk is low for the Moira River at Foxboro. It is possible that the river may slightly exceed full
bank conditions. It is estimated that the maximum peak river flows will occur within 7 days.
A similar snow melt will occur in the upper Salmon River watershed. The watershed’s upper lakes and
tributaries may experience elevated levels.
As there is very little remaining snow in the Napanee watershed, the flood risk is low at this time.
There is no overland flood concern in Prince Edward County at this time. Advisories about Lake Ontario
remain in effect and unchanged.
A FLOOD OUTLOOK STATEMENT gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather
forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff,
cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
Staff will continue to monitor conditions and will provide an update if forecasts and conditions change.
For current water levels or to report any observations of flooding, residents are encouraged to visit

This message will be in effect until (or updated if anything significant changes before) Friday, April 3, 2020.